PENGARUH GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) DAN NILAI TUKAR NEGARA MITRA DAGANG UTAMA TERHADAP EKSPOR KARET ALAM INDONESIA TAHUN 2000-2012

Abstract

Indonesia is the second largest natural rubber producer after Thailand. Mayor trading partners of Indonesia natural rubber involve United States, China, Japan, Singapore and Korea. The development  of Indonesia natural rubber export to major trading partners shows a positive trend. This study aims to analyze the development of Indonesia natural rubber export, the effect of gross domestic product and exchange rates on Indonesia natural rubber export to major trading partners in 2000-2012.This research refers to several empirical  studies such as Ella Hapsari Hendratno (2008) and Onike Siburian (2012). Methods in this research involve descriptive analysis and panel data regression analysis with Fixed Effect Model (FEM). This model was chosen because it is the best model based on the results of the test in panel data. This research is a quantitative study with time series in 2000-2012 and cross-section such as United States, China, Japan, Singapore, and Korea.

Research results show that the development of Indonesia natural rubber export to major trading partners tends to increase, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of major trading partners has a positive impact and significant on Indonesia natural rubber export, while the exchange rate of major trading partners has no effect on Indonesia natural rubber export. The test coefficient of  determination (R²)  is about 0.897695. It means that  89.76  %  variation  in  the dependent variable was explained by variation in the independent variable.

Recommendations of this research are: a) the Government of Indonesia is expected to improve  the quality and quantity of natural rubber, b) the Government of Indonesia should establish better trade cooperation and increase export to major trading partners.