Efektivitas Depresiasi Nilai Tukar Dalam Mendorong Ekspor: Studi Kasus ASEAN-7
rasbin rasbin
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Abstract
This study analyzes the impact of the exchange rate on exports and the factors that influence the relationship between the two variables through the concept of Global Value Chains (GVCs). Furthermore, the exchange rate’s threshold effect on exports is examined, as are the factors that influence the relationship between the two variables. The analysis employs seven ASEAN developing countries from 2000 to 2018, as well as the method of estimating the fixed effect panel and fixed effect panel threshold. This study found three empirical findings. First, depreciation of the real exchange rate is less effective in stimulating exports in ASEAN developing countries. Although actually, the depreciation of the real exchange rate can encourage exports, the impact has decreased and become insignificant. Second, two GVCs indicators, the GVCs participation index and the GVCs position index, have no effect on the relationship between real exchange rates and exports. Third, this study confirms that there are no threshold effects, both depreciation of the real exchange rate on exports and the factors that influence the relationship between the two variables.
Abstrak
Studi ini menganalisis dampak nilai tukar terhadap ekspor dan faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi hubungan kedua variabel tersebut melalui konsep Global Value Chains (GVCs). Selain itu, juga dianalisis efek ambang batas (threshold effect) dari nilai tukar terhadap ekspor dan faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi hubungan kedua variabel tersebut. Analisis ini menggunakan tujuh negara berkembang ASEAN dari tahun 2000 hingga 2018, dan metode estimasi panel data fixed effect dan threshold panel data fixed effect. Studi ini menemukan tiga temuan empiris. Pertama, depresiasi nilai tukar riil kurang efektif dalam mendorong ekspor negara-negara berkembang ASEAN. Meskipun sebenarnya, depresiasi nilai tukar riil dapat mendorong ekspor, namun dampaknya mengalami penurunan dan menjadi tidak signifikan. Kedua, dua indikator GVCs, yaitu GVCs participation index dan GVCs position index, tidak berpengaruh terhadap hubungan antara nilai tukar riil dan ekspor. Ketiga, studi ini menegaskan bahwa tidak ada efek ambang batas, baik depresiasi nilai tukar riil terhadap ekspor maupun faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi hubungan antara kedua variabel tersebut.
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Artikel Tanpa Penulis
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Website
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